Implications of the European Parliament Elections on the MENA region.

Elections Results

In many European countries,  parties on the populist right made huge gains, notably, in France, Germany, and Austria. In France, the National Rally (RN) won 30 seats, more than double the 13 seats won by Macron’s Ensemble party coalition. In Germany the conservative bloc dominated by the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) held its ground, however, the Social Democrat party dropped to 14% their worst result post-WWII. The German AfD made significant gains despite a string of scandals, jumping from 11% in 2019 to 14.2%. In Austria the far-right Freedom Party led with 25.7% of the vote, closely followed by 24.7% of the vote held by the ruling conservative people’s party. 

These election results show a rise in support for far-right parties, as well as some gains for the Greens in Croatia, Slovenia, Latvia and has become the biggest party in Denmark. Despite the surge in support for parties on both the right and left, pro-European centre parties have held their ground. The centre-right European People’s Party (EPP) won the majority of seats (25.69% Statistic sourced here) boosting the chances that their lead candidate, Ursula von der Leyen, will secure a second term as European Commission president. The second biggest party still remains the Group of the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats in the European Parliament (S&D) with 19.03% of the vote. 

Although there were negotiations between Von der Leyen’s EPP and the far right ECR party to form a coalition, the latter did not gain enough seats to reach the 361 needed to form a majority. Therefore, it is most probable that the present coalition between EPP, Renew and S&D remains although the right wing party will have more weight than in the last coalition. Negotiations will be under way the following weeks to sign an accord between the parties and to decide who will preside over the new commission. 

Implications for the Middle East and North Africa

Palestine:

The European elections present a significant threat for both the pro palestinian civil and student movement and for efforts to denounce the ongoing genocide in Gaza and apply economic and military sanctions on Israel. As the EPP has obtained the most seats in the parliament, their position on Palestine will prevail in the new commission and especially if Von der Leyen retains her position as president of the European Commission. 

Von der Leyen’s position on what is currently happening in Gaza has been reasonably clear as she visited Israel on the 13th of October to offer her condolences to the Israelis killed on the 7th October while not mentioning any condemnation of the Israeli attack and bombardment in Gaza which had already reached a heavy death toll by that day. This has demonstrated her pro-Israel stance which is overwhelmingly present in the EPP party.  Additionally, the Geneva International Peace Research Institute has submitted a statement to the ICC the investigate the complicitness of the Commission and its President in crimes against humanity and genocide committed by Israel. 

Nonetheless, contrary to Von der Leyen, the EU foreign policy chief Joseph Borell has been one of the most outspoken in the commission regarding the condemnation of the Israeli onslaught having recently commented on Saturday’s massacre and declaring that “the bloodbath must end immediately”. He has also been known for his call for sanctions against Israel as well as against Israeli settlers. His views are not shared among other members of the commission as well as in the parliamentary coalition leading  the New Arab to predict that he will not remain in his position. This means that he will be replaced by someone who shares the EPP’s pro-Israeli stance. 

As the coalition will most likely be very similar to the previous one with EPP, Renew and the Social Democrats, the position on Palestine will likely be similar to  the one of the previous commission. Nonetheless, attempts to apply sanctions on Israel or to condemn what is happening in Gaza will be even more difficult in the European Parliament due to a significant rise in far right and conservative MEPs.

Immigration:

The Right wing European Party (EPP) has become increasingly aggressive in its immigration policy in fear of losing voters to the far right on this ground. An example is  the manifesto that calls for tripling the staff of Frontex, the European Border Agency accused of multiple human rights violations according to the year-long Desert Dumps HR Investigation conducted by a coalition of globally acclaimed media. Moreover, the EPP wants to transfer asylum seekers who reach the EU to what they call “third safe countries” for processing their asylum claims. Although there is no mention of which countries this would be, some European politicians appear to have in mind countries that have reached migration control agreements with the European Commission (EC) during the last year: Tunisia, Mauritania, and Egypt. 

Recently, on the 17th of March the EU signed a deal to loan Egypt €7.4 billion, doled out over the next four years, to curb irregular migration to Europe’s shores and boost the Egyptian economy. With the exception of the $6 billion agreement with Turkey at the height of the migrant crisis in 2016 the EU has never given close to this amount of money to a partner state. This exchange transforms President Sisi into a close ally of the union and as such a contributor to the EU’s so-called externalisation strategy. Similar deals have been made with Turkey, Tunisia, Mauritania, and a future deal is expected to be signed with Morocco. 

Contrary to the EPP, the manifestos of the S&D and the Renew party do not include the processing of asylum claims in third countries. However, they have supported a series of measures known as the “New Pact on Migration and Asylum” that allows for countries to opt-out of a  broad range of EU asylum rules in the case of a “mass influx” of migrants. These exemptions risk breaching international obligations under refugee and international human rights law. This manifesto also places focus on countries beyond its borders to manage migration, rather than investing in expanding safe pathways and facilities of reception to allow people to reach protection in Europe. The agreement has been one of the most dangerous and devastating asylum laws passed by the EU and will make it even more difficult and life threatening for refugees to make the journey to the EU and seek asylum. 

The Social Democrats and Liberals claim this pact was a way of stopping the rise of the far-right, as it shows that these parties can reach an agreement on migration. What it shows is a radical shift to the right of traditional centre and centre left parties. As the election showed it did not succeed in any way in stopping the rise of the far right. If these parties continue in this way, the new parliament will see the passing of even more repressive migration policies, gradually turning the EU into the Far Right’s wish of “Fortress Europe”.

ACHRS will continue to monitor the developments of the negotiations as well as elections in coming weeks in France and the United Kingdom and the impacts their results will have  on our region of focus. 

Written by Paloma Mauriès & Omar Daya

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